FCU vs HSV
Union Berlin (home) vs Hamburger SV · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 25.1% fair 3.99
HSV win 32.6% fair 3.07
Expected Goals
FCU
1.50
—
1.29
HSV
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.4% | fair 2.11 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 HSV | 11.9% | |
| FCU 1-0 HSV | 9.3% | |
| FCU 2-1 HSV | 8.9% | |
| FCU 0-1 HSV | 8.0% | |
| FCU 1-2 HSV | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: HSV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).