FCU vs TSG
Union Berlin (home) vs TSG Hoffenheim · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 30.5% fair 3.28
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
TSG win 47.4% fair 2.11
Expected Goals
FCU
1.47
—
1.97
TSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.6% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.4% | fair 3.00 |
| Both teams to score | 66.1% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 TSG | 9.3% | |
| FCU 1-2 TSG | 9.2% | |
| FCU 2-1 TSG | 6.8% | |
| FCU 2-2 TSG | 6.7% | |
| FCU 0-1 TSG | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: TSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).