FCU vs KOE
Union Berlin (home) vs 1. FC Köln · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
FCU win 43.9% fair 2.28
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
KOE win 33.1% fair 3.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.9% / 22.8% / 33.3%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.78
—
1.53
KOE
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.8% | fair 2.79 |
| Both teams to score | 65.1% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 KOE | 10.0% | |
| FCU 2-1 KOE | 8.9% | |
| FCU 1-2 KOE | 7.6% | |
| FCU 2-2 KOE | 6.8% | |
| FCU 1-0 KOE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: KOE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).