FCU vs RBL
Union Berlin (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 23.7% fair 4.23
Draw 20.4% fair 4.90
RBL win 55.9% fair 1.79
Expected Goals
FCU
1.28
—
2.23
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.0% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.0% | fair 3.13 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-2 RBL | 9.5% | |
| FCU 1-1 RBL | 8.5% | |
| FCU 0-2 RBL | 7.4% | |
| FCU 1-3 RBL | 7.1% | |
| FCU 0-1 RBL | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).