FCU vs RBL
Union Berlin (home) vs RB Leipzig · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
FCU win 30.3% fair 3.30
Draw 22.3% fair 4.49
RBL win 47.4% fair 2.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.2% / 22.0% / 49.8%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.42
—
1.94
RBL
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 RBL | 9.6% | |
| FCU 1-2 RBL | 9.3% | |
| FCU 2-1 RBL | 6.8% | |
| FCU 0-1 RBL | 6.7% | |
| FCU 2-2 RBL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: RBL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).