FCU vs B04
Union Berlin (home) vs Bayer Leverkusen · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 25.9% fair 3.87
Draw 21.1% fair 4.73
B04 win 53.0% fair 1.89
Expected Goals
FCU
1.34
—
2.12
B04
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.1% | fair 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.9% | fair 3.04 |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | fair 1.54 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-2 B04 | 9.5% | |
| FCU 1-1 B04 | 8.9% | |
| FCU 0-2 B04 | 7.1% | |
| FCU 1-3 B04 | 6.7% | |
| FCU 0-1 B04 | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: B04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).