FCU vs M05
Union Berlin (home) vs Mainz 05 · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 38.2% fair 2.62
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
M05 win 37.8% fair 2.64
Expected Goals
FCU
1.53
—
1.55
M05
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.8% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 M05 | 10.9% | |
| FCU 1-2 M05 | 8.5% | |
| FCU 2-1 M05 | 8.3% | |
| FCU 0-1 M05 | 7.1% | |
| FCU 1-0 M05 | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: M05 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).