FCU vs SCP
Union Berlin (home) vs SC Paderborn · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 44.6% fair 2.24
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
SCP win 30.9% fair 3.23
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.7% / 24.5% / 30.7%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.60
—
1.28
SCP
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 SCP | 11.5% | |
| FCU 2-1 SCP | 9.2% | |
| FCU 1-0 SCP | 9.0% | |
| FCU 1-2 SCP | 7.4% | |
| FCU 0-1 SCP | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: SCP goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).