FCU vs S04
Union Berlin (home) vs Schalke 04 · model confidence 65%
Match Outcome
FCU win 47.5% fair 2.11
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
S04 win 29.2% fair 3.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 48.4% / 23.2% / 28.4%.
Expected Goals
FCU
1.78
—
1.31
S04
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 60.8% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 S04 | 10.6% | |
| FCU 2-1 S04 | 9.4% | |
| FCU 1-0 S04 | 8.1% | |
| FCU 2-0 S04 | 7.2% | |
| FCU 1-2 S04 | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: S04 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).