FCU vs VFB
Union Berlin (home) vs VfB Stuttgart · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FCU win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
VFB win 48.6% fair 2.06
Expected Goals
FCU
1.37
—
1.92
VFB
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCU 1-1 VFB | 9.8% | |
| FCU 1-2 VFB | 9.4% | |
| FCU 0-1 VFB | 7.2% | |
| FCU 0-2 VFB | 6.9% | |
| FCU 2-1 VFB | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: FCU goals · Columns: VFB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).