Model Performance
A probability model is judged by calibration over samples, not by single-match hits. Every engine change must move these numbers on out-of-sample matches — or it gets cut.
2026-27 Season
No finished matches yet — tracking starts after the first game.
Engine Calibration Benchmark (10-season backtest)
| Edge Rating engine (calibrated constants) | 0.9729 | n = 3040 |
| League-prior baseline (floor) | 1.0654 | |
| Pinnacle closing odds, de-margined (ceiling) | 0.9494 | model 0.9672 on same 2870 |
Constants (home advantage 1.2, update step 1.5, season carry 0.9, promoted prior 30.0) fitted on EPL 16/17–25/26, first 2 seasons burn-in, minimising out-of-sample 1X2 log loss. The engine clearly beats the naive prior and sits 0.018 behind the closing market — the expected picture for a goals-signal engine; the gap is the target for the xG upgrade.