Edge Tracker
Whenever the model's probability beats the best market price by 5%+ expected value, a flat 1-unit paper position is opened and later settled against the real result. This measures one thing only: does model–market divergence carry signal, or does the market simply know more? No real money, no recommendations.
Ledger Summary
Entry rule: model probability × best price − 1 ≥ 5%; 1X2 model p ≥ 28%; O/U 2.5 model p ≥ 20%. At most one paper position per match (highest EV among qualifiers — no stacking 1X2 + Over). Locked at first open. Below ~200 settled positions the ROI is statistically meaningless — collect first, conclude later.
Upcoming O/U 2.5 board
No Over/Under 2.5 quotes in the latest snapshot (books may not list the 2.5 line yet, or the next odds refresh is pending).
Settled Positions
| Kickoff (UTC) | Match | Position | Model | Market | Price | Score | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 19:00 | BOU vs MIL | ✗ UNDER25 | 52.7% | 45.3% | 2.10 | 3-0 | -1.00 |
| 10-15 19:00 | CEL vs JUV | ✗ HOME | 36.5% | 27.3% | 3.60 | 1-2 | -1.00 |
| 09-17 19:00 | RSO vs BOU | ✓ AWAY | 43.2% | 30.9% | 3.05 | 1-2 | +2.05 |
How to read this
A sustained positive ROI over a large sample would mean the model sees something the market misprices — that pattern (not individual picks) is the asset. A negative ROI means the market is better informed than the model, and each divergence is a measure of what the model is missing (team news, lineups, money flow). Either result is valuable; only the sample size makes it trustworthy.
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Paste this block into chat for analysis (summary, O/U board, open + settled).
# Edge Tracker — UEFA Europa League (2026-10-27 04:58 UTC) ## Summary - Open: **0** - Settled: **3** (wins 1/3) - Staked: **3.0** u · P&L **+0.05** u · ROI **+1.7%** - O/U 2.5 settled: **1** · P&L **-1.00** · ROI **-100.0%** - Rule: EV≥5% · 1X2 p≥28% · O/U p≥20% · max 1 position/match · flat 1u paper ## Upcoming O/U 2.5 board | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | Qualifies | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Open positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | EV | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | — | — | — | — | — | — | none | ## Settled positions | Kickoff | Match | Side | Model | Market | Odds | Score | Won | P&L | |---|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---|---|---:| | 2026-10-22T19:00 | bournemouth vs milan | UNDER 2.5 | 52.7% | 45.3% | 2.10 | 3-0 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-10-15T19:00 | celta vs juventus | HOME | 36.5% | 27.3% | 3.60 | 1-2 | N | -1.00 | | 2026-09-17T19:00 | real-sociedad vs bournemouth | AWAY | 43.2% | 30.9% | 3.05 | 1-2 | Y | +2.05 | _Paper positions only — not betting advice. ROI is noise below ~200 settled._