EDGERATING
Methodology

Matchday 4

Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).

← MD 3
MD 5 →
Date (UTC)Match HomeDrawAway ResultModel pick
11-05 17:45 Milan vs Ferencváros Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Real Sociedad vs Lyon Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Sparta Praha vs Bournemouth Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Rennes vs Olympiacos Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Anderlecht vs Salzburg Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Crystal Palace vs Hoffenheim Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 N.E.C. vs Omonia Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzen Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 17:45 Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 B04 vs OM 44.4% 24.0% 31.6% — HOME analysis →
11-05 20:00 Benfica vs Lech Poznan Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 Celtic vs Besiktas Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 Sturm Graz vs Celje Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 Sunderland vs GNK Dinamo Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 Celta vs Union SG Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia Outside big-five rating pool
11-05 20:00 H. Beer-Sheva vs OFI Crete Outside big-five rating pool

Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.