Matchday 3
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-22 16:45 | Juventus vs Rennes | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | Ferencváros vs Torreense | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | Union SG vs H. Beer-Sheva | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | GNK Dinamo vs N.E.C. | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | Sturm Graz vs Marseille | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | Lech Poznan vs Sunderland | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | OFI Crete vs Leverkusen | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 16:45 | Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Olympiacos vs Sparta Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Celtic vs Celta | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | BOU vs MIL | 45.8% | 25.9% | 28.3% | 3-0 | ✓ HOME | analysis → |
| 10-22 19:00 | Celje vs Salzburg | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Omonia vs Benfica | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Hoffenheim vs Lyon | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Besiktas vs Crystal Palace | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 10-22 19:00 | Lillestrøm vs Real Sociedad | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.