Matchday 2

Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).

← MD 1 MD 3 →

Date (UTC)	Match	Home	Draw	Away	Result	Model pick
10-15 16:45	Lyon vs Crystal Palace	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	AZ Alkmaar vs H. Beer-Sheva	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	Union SG vs Real Sociedad	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	Salzburg vs Milan	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	Sparta Praha vs Lillestrøm	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	Lech Poznan vs Leverkusen	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	Celje vs Omonia	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 16:45	Torreense vs Sunderland	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	Benfica vs Celtic	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	Marseille vs Olympiacos	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	Ferencváros vs Viktoria Plzen	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	GNK Dinamo vs Anderlecht	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	Rennes vs OFI Crete	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	CEL vs JUV	37.5%	29.3%	33.3%	1-2	✗ HOME	analysis →
10-15 19:00	Hoffenheim vs Besiktas	Outside big-five rating pool
10-15 19:00	N.E.C. vs Levski Sofia	Outside big-five rating pool

Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.