CEL vs JUV
Celta Vigo (home) vs Juventus · model confidence 83% · pregame locked (10-15 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
CEL win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 29.3% fair 3.42
JUV win 33.3% fair 3.01
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.10
—
1.04
JUV
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.1% | fair 2.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63.9% | fair 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 JUV | 13.5% | |
| CEL 1-0 JUV | 13.0% | |
| CEL 0-1 JUV | 12.2% | |
| CEL 0-0 JUV | 11.8% | |
| CEL 2-1 JUV | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: JUV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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