Matchday 1
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 16:45 | Omonia vs Celta | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 16:45 | Ararat-Armenia vs Sparta Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | Leverkusen vs Celje | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | Milan vs Benfica | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | Olympiacos vs Jagiellonia | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | Anderlecht vs Lyon | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | Sturm Graz vs Rennes | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-16 19:00 | H. Beer-Sheva vs GNK Dinamo | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 16:45 | OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 16:45 | Levski Sofia vs Salzburg | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 19:00 | Juventus vs N.E.C. | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 19:00 | RSO vs BOU | 31.5% | 24.1% | 44.3% | 1-2 | ✓ AWAY | analysis → |
| 09-17 19:00 | Viktoria Plzen vs Union SG | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 19:00 | Celtic vs Ferencváros | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 19:00 | Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 19:00 | Besiktas vs Marseille | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 09-17 19:00 | Lillestrøm vs Torreense | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.