RSO vs BOU
Real Sociedad (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 81% · pregame locked (09-17 · FT 1-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
RSO win 31.5% fair 3.17
Draw 24.1% fair 4.14
BOU win 44.3% fair 2.25
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
RSO
1.31
—
1.68
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| RSO 1-1 BOU | 11.1% | |
| RSO 1-2 BOU | 9.3% | |
| RSO 0-1 BOU | 8.4% | |
| RSO 2-1 BOU | 7.3% | |
| RSO 0-2 BOU | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: RSO goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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