BOU vs MIL
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs AC Milan · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-22 · FT 3-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
BOU win 45.8% fair 2.18
Draw 25.9% fair 3.85
MIL win 28.3% fair 3.54
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.48
—
1.09
MIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 MIL | 12.3% | |
| BOU 1-0 MIL | 11.3% | |
| BOU 2-1 MIL | 9.1% | |
| BOU 2-0 MIL | 8.4% | |
| BOU 0-1 MIL | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: MIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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