EDGERATING
Methodology

Matchday 5

Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).

← MD 4
MD 6 →
Date (UTC)Match HomeDrawAway ResultModel pick
11-26 17:45 Olympiacos vs Milan Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 17:45 Marseille vs Levski Sofia Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 17:45 Viktoria Plzen vs Benfica Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 17:45 Union SG vs Lech Poznan Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 17:45 GNK Dinamo vs Leverkusen Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 17:45 Salzburg vs Ararat-Armenia Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 17:45 CEL vs BOU 32.7% 28.4% 38.9% — AWAY analysis →
11-26 17:45 Besiktas vs H. Beer-Sheva Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 Juventus vs Omonia Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 Lyon vs Lillestrøm Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 Ferencváros vs Celje Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 Sparta Praha vs AZ Alkmaar Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 CRY vs RSO 52.3% 23.6% 24.1% — HOME analysis →
11-26 20:00 Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 Hoffenheim vs Sturm Graz Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 Torreense vs Celtic Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 N.E.C. vs Rennes Outside big-five rating pool
11-26 20:00 OFI Crete vs Anderlecht Outside big-five rating pool

Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.