EDGERATING
Methodology

Matchday 6

Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).

← MD 5
MD 7 →
Date (UTC)Match HomeDrawAway ResultModel pick
12-10 17:45 AZ Alkmaar vs Sturm Graz Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 17:45 OM vs CEL 48.2% 25.9% 25.9% — HOME analysis →
12-10 17:45 Rennes vs GNK Dinamo Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 17:45 Anderlecht vs Hoffenheim Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 17:45 Jagiellonia vs Crystal Palace Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 17:45 Omonia vs Celtic Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 17:45 H. Beer-Sheva vs Juventus Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 17:45 Ararat-Armenia vs N.E.C. Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Leverkusen vs Besiktas Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Benfica vs OFI Crete Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 MIL vs SUN 48.1% 26.9% 25.0% — HOME analysis →
12-10 20:00 Lyon vs Union SG Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Real Sociedad vs Torreense Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Salzburg vs Sparta Praha Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Lech Poznan vs Ferencváros Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Bournemouth vs Viktoria Plzen Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Celje vs Olympiacos Outside big-five rating pool
12-10 20:00 Levski Sofia vs Lillestrøm Outside big-five rating pool

Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.