Matchday 7
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-21 17:45 | Olympiacos vs Hoffenheim | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Real Sociedad vs Viktoria Plzen | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Ferencváros vs Juventus | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Sturm Graz vs OFI Crete | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Jagiellonia vs Lyon | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Besiktas vs Union SG | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | N.E.C. vs Benfica | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Lillestrøm vs Bournemouth | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 17:45 | Ararat-Armenia vs Celje | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Leverkusen vs Salzburg | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | AZ Alkmaar vs GNK Dinamo | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Celtic vs Marseille | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Rennes vs Omonia | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Anderlecht vs Sunderland | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Lech Poznan vs Torreense | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Crystal Palace vs Sparta Praha | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | H. Beer-Sheva vs Celta | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-21 20:00 | Levski Sofia vs Milan | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.