Matchday 8
Pregame model probabilities for every fixture. Played matches show the prediction made with ratings as they stood before kickoff — no hindsight. European scale: domestic ATT/DEF + league-strength offset (see Methodology).
| Date (UTC) | Match | Home | Draw | Away | Result | Model pick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-28 20:00 | Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | JUV vs RSO | 49.9% | 23.9% | 26.2% | — | HOME | analysis → |
| 01-28 20:00 | Milan vs Ararat-Armenia | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Lyon vs Leverkusen | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Marseille vs Anderlecht | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Viktoria Plzen vs Jagiellonia | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Union SG vs Celtic | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | GNK Dinamo vs Sturm Graz | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Salzburg vs Crystal Palace | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Sparta Praha vs Rennes | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Bournemouth vs H. Beer-Sheva | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Sunderland vs Levski Sofia | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Celje vs N.E.C. | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Omonia vs Besiktas | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Celta vs Lillestrøm | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Hoffenheim vs Ferencváros | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | Torreense vs Olympiacos | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
| 01-28 20:00 | OFI Crete vs Lech Poznan | Outside big-five rating pool | |||||
Probabilities: home / draw / away, shrunk toward the league prior when rating confidence is low. "Analysis" for played matches shows the locked pregame model (same as Fixtures / Over 2.5 calibration); open fixtures use current ratings.