JUV vs RSO
Juventus (home) vs Real Sociedad · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
JUV win 49.9% fair 2.00
Draw 23.9% fair 4.18
RSO win 26.2% fair 3.82
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
JUV
1.73
—
1.17
RSO
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.6% | fair 2.24 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| JUV 1-1 RSO | 11.1% | |
| JUV 2-1 RSO | 9.6% | |
| JUV 1-0 RSO | 9.5% | |
| JUV 2-0 RSO | 8.3% | |
| JUV 1-2 RSO | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: JUV goals · Columns: RSO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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