OM vs CEL
Marseille (home) vs Celta Vigo · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
OM win 48.2% fair 2.07
Draw 25.9% fair 3.87
CEL win 25.9% fair 3.86
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
OM
1.51
—
1.01
CEL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| OM 1-1 CEL | 12.3% | |
| OM 1-0 CEL | 12.1% | |
| OM 2-1 CEL | 9.3% | |
| OM 2-0 CEL | 9.1% | |
| OM 0-1 CEL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: OM goals · Columns: CEL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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