MIL vs SUN
AC Milan (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
MIL win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 26.9% fair 3.72
SUN win 25.0% fair 3.99
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
MIL
1.42
—
0.92
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.42 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 45.5% | fair 2.20 |
Most Likely Scores
| MIL 1-0 SUN | 13.7% | |
| MIL 1-1 SUN | 12.6% | |
| MIL 2-0 SUN | 9.7% | |
| MIL 0-0 SUN | 9.7% | |
| MIL 2-1 SUN | 8.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: MIL goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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