CEL vs BOU
Celta Vigo (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
CEL win 32.7% fair 3.06
Draw 28.4% fair 3.52
BOU win 38.9% fair 2.57
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
CEL
1.03
—
1.21
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
Most Likely Scores
| CEL 1-1 BOU | 13.3% | |
| CEL 0-1 BOU | 12.8% | |
| CEL 1-0 BOU | 11.0% | |
| CEL 0-0 BOU | 10.6% | |
| CEL 1-2 BOU | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CEL goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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