B04 vs OM
Bayer Leverkusen (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
B04 win 44.4% fair 2.25
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
OM win 31.6% fair 3.16
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
B04
1.68
—
1.39
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| B04 1-1 OM | 10.9% | |
| B04 2-1 OM | 9.1% | |
| B04 1-0 OM | 7.8% | |
| B04 1-2 OM | 7.5% | |
| B04 2-0 OM | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: B04 goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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