SCO vs AJA
Angers (home) vs Auxerre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 26.6% fair 3.75
AJA win 32.6% fair 3.07
Expected Goals
SCO
1.34
—
1.19
AJA
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 AJA | 12.7% | |
| SCO 1-0 AJA | 10.7% | |
| SCO 0-1 AJA | 9.5% | |
| SCO 2-1 AJA | 8.5% | |
| SCO 0-0 AJA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: AJA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).