SCO vs SB29
Angers (home) vs Brest · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 37.5% fair 2.67
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
SB29 win 37.2% fair 2.69
Expected Goals
SCO
1.38
—
1.42
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 SB29 | 11.9% | |
| SCO 0-1 SB29 | 8.6% | |
| SCO 1-2 SB29 | 8.5% | |
| SCO 1-0 SB29 | 8.4% | |
| SCO 2-1 SB29 | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).