SCO vs LMFC
Angers (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 46.2% fair 2.16
Draw 25.3% fair 3.95
LMFC win 28.4% fair 3.52
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 46.5% / 25.2% / 28.3%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.55
—
1.16
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 LMFC | 12.0% | |
| SCO 1-0 LMFC | 10.4% | |
| SCO 2-1 LMFC | 9.3% | |
| SCO 2-0 LMFC | 8.0% | |
| SCO 0-1 LMFC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).