SCO vs RCL
Angers (home) vs Lens · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
SCO win 23.2% fair 4.30
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
RCL win 54.0% fair 1.85
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 20.0% / 22.3% / 57.8%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.01
—
1.88
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 RCL | 10.5% | |
| SCO 0-1 RCL | 10.4% | |
| SCO 1-2 RCL | 9.9% | |
| SCO 0-2 RCL | 9.8% | |
| SCO 1-3 RCL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).