SCO vs LIL
Angers (home) vs Lille · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
SCO win 27.0% fair 3.70
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
LIL win 47.3% fair 2.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 24.3% / 25.6% / 50.1%.
Expected Goals
SCO
0.99
—
1.54
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.5% | fair 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 0-1 LIL | 12.2% | |
| SCO 1-1 LIL | 12.1% | |
| SCO 0-2 LIL | 9.4% | |
| SCO 1-2 LIL | 9.4% | |
| SCO 0-0 LIL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).