SCO vs LIL
Angers (home) vs Lille · model confidence 77% · pregame locked (08-23 · FT 0-2 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCO win 28.7% fair 3.49
Draw 25.8% fair 3.87
LIL win 45.5% fair 2.20
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.1% / 25.8% / 48.1%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.04
—
1.51
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | fair 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.1% | fair 1.88 |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 LIL | 12.3% | |
| SCO 0-1 LIL | 11.8% | |
| SCO 1-2 LIL | 9.3% | |
| SCO 0-2 LIL | 8.9% | |
| SCO 1-0 LIL | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).