SCO vs FCL
Angers (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
SCO win 35.4% fair 2.83
Draw 26.3% fair 3.80
FCL win 38.3% fair 2.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 33.7% / 26.3% / 39.9%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.23
—
1.36
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 FCL | 12.5% | |
| SCO 0-1 FCL | 10.2% | |
| SCO 1-0 FCL | 9.2% | |
| SCO 1-2 FCL | 8.5% | |
| SCO 2-1 FCL | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).