SCO vs FCL
Angers (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-25 · FT 0-0 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.90
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCO win 33.5% fair 2.99
Draw 27.7% fair 3.61
FCL win 38.8% fair 2.58
Expected Goals
SCO
1.09
—
1.25
FCL
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SCO ×0.903 (matched 11), FCL ×0.900 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Both teams to score | 47.3% | fair 2.11 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 FCL | 13.1% | |
| SCO 0-1 FCL | 12.1% | |
| SCO 1-0 FCL | 10.5% | |
| SCO 0-0 FCL | 9.6% | |
| SCO 1-2 FCL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).