SCO vs OM
Angers (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 80% · pregame locked (10-18 · FT 2-5 ) · lineup adj ×0.90 / ×0.93
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
SCO win 27.5% fair 3.63
Draw 25.4% fair 3.94
OM win 47.1% fair 2.12
Expected Goals
SCO
1.04
—
1.56
OM
Starting-XI ADJ applied to expected goals (not a permanent rating change): SCO ×0.903 (matched 10), OM ×0.933 (matched 11). Clamp 0.90–1.10, α=0.5.
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | fair 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.8% | fair 1.93 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 OM | 12.0% | |
| SCO 0-1 OM | 11.6% | |
| SCO 1-2 OM | 9.4% | |
| SCO 0-2 OM | 9.1% | |
| SCO 1-0 OM | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).