SCO vs OM
Angers (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SCO win 26.2% fair 3.81
Draw 23.3% fair 4.28
OM win 50.4% fair 1.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.3% / 22.9% / 53.8%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.12
—
1.83
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 OM | 10.7% | |
| SCO 1-2 OM | 9.8% | |
| SCO 0-1 OM | 9.6% | |
| SCO 0-2 OM | 8.7% | |
| SCO 2-1 OM | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).