SCO vs ASM
Angers (home) vs Monaco · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 29.0% fair 3.45
Draw 24.5% fair 4.08
ASM win 46.5% fair 2.15
Expected Goals
SCO
1.17
—
1.65
ASM
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 ASM | 11.5% | |
| SCO 0-1 ASM | 9.8% | |
| SCO 1-2 ASM | 9.5% | |
| SCO 0-2 ASM | 8.1% | |
| SCO 1-0 ASM | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: ASM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).