SCO vs OGC
Angers (home) vs Nice · model confidence 74%
Match Outcome
SCO win 43.5% fair 2.30
Draw 26.4% fair 3.78
OGC win 30.1% fair 3.33
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.2% / 26.5% / 30.3%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.40
—
1.13
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 OGC | 12.6% | |
| SCO 1-0 OGC | 11.2% | |
| SCO 0-1 OGC | 9.0% | |
| SCO 2-1 OGC | 8.8% | |
| SCO 0-0 OGC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).