SCO vs OGC
Angers (home) vs Nice · model confidence 79% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 41.7% fair 2.40
Draw 26.6% fair 3.75
OGC win 31.7% fair 3.16
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.2% / 26.7% / 32.1%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.36
—
1.16
OGC
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.2% | fair 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.8% | fair 1.86 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 OGC | 12.7% | |
| SCO 1-0 OGC | 10.9% | |
| SCO 0-1 OGC | 9.4% | |
| SCO 2-1 OGC | 8.6% | |
| SCO 0-0 OGC | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: OGC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).