SCO vs PFC
Angers (home) vs Paris FC · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 31.9% fair 3.13
Draw 25.8% fair 3.88
PFC win 42.3% fair 2.36
Expected Goals
SCO
1.18
—
1.48
PFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | fair 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | fair 1.98 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 PFC | 12.2% | |
| SCO 0-1 PFC | 10.4% | |
| SCO 1-2 PFC | 9.0% | |
| SCO 1-0 PFC | 8.3% | |
| SCO 0-2 PFC | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: PFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).