SCO vs PSG
Angers (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 17.8% fair 5.61
Draw 20.7% fair 4.84
PSG win 61.5% fair 1.63
Expected Goals
SCO
0.88
—
2.07
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | fair 1.95 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 0-2 PSG | 11.2% | |
| SCO 0-1 PSG | 10.8% | |
| SCO 1-2 PSG | 9.9% | |
| SCO 1-1 PSG | 9.5% | |
| SCO 0-3 PSG | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).