SCO vs REN
Angers (home) vs Rennes · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
SCO win 31.0% fair 3.23
Draw 24.4% fair 4.10
REN win 44.7% fair 2.24
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.8% / 24.1% / 47.1%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.25
—
1.67
REN
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | fair 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.2% | fair 2.26 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 REN | 11.3% | |
| SCO 1-2 REN | 9.4% | |
| SCO 0-1 REN | 9.0% | |
| SCO 0-2 REN | 7.5% | |
| SCO 2-1 REN | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: REN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).