SCO vs TFC
Angers (home) vs Toulouse · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SCO win 33.0% fair 3.03
Draw 25.9% fair 3.86
TFC win 41.1% fair 2.43
Expected Goals
SCO
1.20
—
1.44
TFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 TFC | 12.3% | |
| SCO 0-1 TFC | 10.3% | |
| SCO 1-2 TFC | 8.9% | |
| SCO 1-0 TFC | 8.5% | |
| SCO 2-1 TFC | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: TFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).