SCO vs EST
Angers (home) vs Troyes · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
SCO win 44.9% fair 2.23
Draw 26.4% fair 3.79
EST win 28.7% fair 3.48
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.9% / 26.5% / 28.6%.
Expected Goals
SCO
1.42
—
1.08
EST
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| SCO 1-1 EST | 12.6% | |
| SCO 1-0 EST | 11.6% | |
| SCO 2-1 EST | 9.0% | |
| SCO 0-1 EST | 8.8% | |
| SCO 2-0 EST | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: SCO goals · Columns: EST goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).