AJA vs SCO
Auxerre (home) vs Angers · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
AJA win 44.2% fair 2.26
Draw 27.2% fair 3.68
SCO win 28.6% fair 3.50
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 44.1% / 27.4% / 28.5%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.35
—
1.03
SCO
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.5% | fair 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.5% | fair 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 SCO | 12.9% | |
| AJA 1-0 SCO | 12.5% | |
| AJA 0-1 SCO | 9.5% | |
| AJA 0-0 SCO | 9.3% | |
| AJA 2-1 SCO | 8.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: SCO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).