AJA vs SB29
Auxerre (home) vs Brest · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
AJA win 42.3% fair 2.37
Draw 25.2% fair 3.97
SB29 win 32.5% fair 3.07
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.8% / 25.1% / 33.1%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.50
—
1.31
SB29
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.6% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 SB29 | 11.8% | |
| AJA 1-0 SB29 | 9.0% | |
| AJA 2-1 SB29 | 8.9% | |
| AJA 0-1 SB29 | 7.9% | |
| AJA 1-2 SB29 | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: SB29 goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).