AJA vs HAC
Auxerre (home) vs Le Havre · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 42.7% fair 2.34
Draw 26.7% fair 3.74
HAC win 30.6% fair 3.27
Expected Goals
AJA
1.37
—
1.12
HAC
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | fair 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 HAC | 12.7% | |
| AJA 1-0 HAC | 11.4% | |
| AJA 0-1 HAC | 9.3% | |
| AJA 2-1 HAC | 8.7% | |
| AJA 0-0 HAC | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: HAC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).