AJA vs LMFC
Auxerre (home) vs Le Mans · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
AJA win 49.7% fair 2.01
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
LMFC win 25.6% fair 3.90
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.9% / 24.4% / 24.7%.
Expected Goals
AJA
1.66
—
1.08
LMFC
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | fair 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 LMFC | 11.6% | |
| AJA 1-0 LMFC | 10.7% | |
| AJA 2-1 LMFC | 9.6% | |
| AJA 2-0 LMFC | 8.9% | |
| AJA 0-1 LMFC | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: LMFC goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).