AJA vs RCL
Auxerre (home) vs Lens · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 25.2% fair 3.96
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
RCL win 51.9% fair 1.93
Expected Goals
AJA
1.14
—
1.88
RCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 RCL | 10.4% | |
| AJA 1-2 RCL | 9.8% | |
| AJA 0-1 RCL | 9.2% | |
| AJA 0-2 RCL | 8.6% | |
| AJA 1-3 RCL | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: RCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).