AJA vs LIL
Auxerre (home) vs Lille · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 27.8% fair 3.60
Draw 25.6% fair 3.90
LIL win 46.6% fair 2.15
Expected Goals
AJA
1.04
—
1.53
LIL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 LIL | 12.2% | |
| AJA 0-1 LIL | 11.7% | |
| AJA 1-2 LIL | 9.3% | |
| AJA 0-2 LIL | 8.9% | |
| AJA 1-0 LIL | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: LIL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).