AJA vs FCL
Auxerre (home) vs Lorient · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 35.7% fair 2.80
Draw 26.4% fair 3.78
FCL win 37.9% fair 2.64
Expected Goals
AJA
1.24
—
1.34
FCL
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.5% | fair 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.5% | fair 1.91 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 FCL | 12.6% | |
| AJA 0-1 FCL | 10.2% | |
| AJA 1-0 FCL | 9.4% | |
| AJA 1-2 FCL | 8.4% | |
| AJA 2-1 FCL | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: FCL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).