AJA vs OL
Auxerre (home) vs Lyon · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 27.6% fair 3.63
Draw 24.8% fair 4.03
OL win 47.6% fair 2.10
Expected Goals
AJA
1.09
—
1.62
OL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 OL | 11.7% | |
| AJA 0-1 OL | 10.8% | |
| AJA 1-2 OL | 9.5% | |
| AJA 0-2 OL | 8.8% | |
| AJA 1-0 OL | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: OL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).