AJA vs OM
Auxerre (home) vs Marseille · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AJA win 28.0% fair 3.58
Draw 22.4% fair 4.47
OM win 49.6% fair 2.01
Expected Goals
AJA
1.33
—
1.96
OM
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.7% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.3% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| AJA 1-1 OM | 9.7% | |
| AJA 1-2 OM | 9.5% | |
| AJA 0-1 OM | 7.3% | |
| AJA 0-2 OM | 7.2% | |
| AJA 2-1 OM | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: AJA goals · Columns: OM goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).